Nigerian presidents are notorious for self-aggrandizement.
Former President Olusegun Obasanjo termed
himself founder of modern Nigeria. And yet he presided over one of the
most imperial eras in his country’s history, making political art out of
disdaining the judiciary and legislature, hounding the opposition,
empowering anachronistic behavior by the likes of Lamidi Adedibu and
Chris Uba, turning elections into “do-or-die” events, and—among other
scandals—blowing at least $10 billion of Nigeria’s scarce resources on
so-called electric power projects that occasioned little or no
improvement. So much for being a modernising influence, much less the
founder of modern Nigeria!
His successor, Umaru Yar’Adua, styled
himself a servant-leader. Yet, he insisted on keeping a mandate that he
admitted was obtained in an election fraught with fraud; he would not
tell Nigerians that he was gravely sick, much less agree to hand over
power even as he spent months in foreign hospitals. He neither acted
like a servant nor a leader.
The next in line, Goodluck Jonathan,
seized the appealing title of transformational leader. As Nigerians are
now realizing, he was something of an absentee leader (an oxymoron). At a
time when Boko Haram insurgents were pounding the northeast of Nigeria
and routing the Nigerian military, President Jonathan apparently
acquiesced in the callous transformation of the defense budget into a
windfall for his political cohorts.
President Muhammadu Buhari rode into
office with Change as his virtual middle name. He’s supposed to be the
president to change the political culture in Nigeria, to set his country
on the path to greatness.
Let’s grant him his due. He is Nigeria’s
first president since Shehu Shagari who has left no impression of
setting the illicit accumulation of wealth as a top priority. When he
warns his ministers and other lieutenants against fiddling with public
funds, it is possible to take him at his word. After President
Yar’Adua’s wife, Turai, and President Jonathan’s, Patience, left us two
examples of execrable First Ladyship, Mr. Buhari’s wife, Aisha, has
maintained a modest profile that is altogether welcome. We have not
heard of Aisha Buhari ordering any governors about, or courting a
courtier of politicians who would address her as “Mummy” or “Mother of
the Nation.”
Yet, for all that, President Buhari has
done nothing in eight months to inspire hope that he is Change. Is he
capable of doing so? I hope so; but he hasn’t done it. Certainly, he has
a unique opportunity to rise to the challenge.
Past Nigerian presidents could get away
with acts of self-worship, instead of earning their accolade through
sound statecraft. Mr. Buhari’s successors always had enough cushion of
funds to squander and use in buying affection. They could always count
on receiving hefty cheques from oil companies—enough cash, at least, to
serve the grasping impulse of the politically elevated and their
hirelings.
Mr. Buhari has assumed the Presidency at a
time when the famed petrodollar is thin, and may soon dry up
altogether. As I write, the price of crude oil per barrel continues to
tumble, threatening to go under $30. The United States, once a major
importer of Nigerian crude, has dramatically increased its domestic
production. China has many attractive suppliers to choose from. We may
be approaching a time when erstwhile big importers of Nigeria’s crude
could say to us, drink the stuff if you wish! The dropping crude oil
prices have already wreaked havoc on the revenue projections that
informed Mr. Buhari’s first budget.
The implication is clear. Whilst
President Buhari’s predecessors were able to pay lip service to the goal
of diversifying Nigeria’s economy, he does not have that luxury. He
cannot “oil” his way to funds to fuel Nigeria’s developmental projects.
Nor would it be prudent to just turn to borrowing.
If the naira continues its steady slide
against the dollar, the consequences are bound to be dire for Nigerians.
As Nigerian firms budget ever more naira to purchase machinery and
other goods from Europe, Asia and North America, many of them are likely
to go under. In order to survive, others are likely to lay off hundreds
of thousands of workers. Imagine the impact of this prospect in a
country whose unemployment rates are already terribly high.
What time is it for President Buhari?
It’s time for visionary and imaginative leadership. It requires hiring
the best hands out there to help him think/lead Nigeria out of this
perfect storm. Does he have what it takes? It remains to be seen.
Nigeria’s economic crisis is not coming;
we are very much in the midst of it. It’s disturbing, then, that the
president has not deemed it necessary to outline his plan to, A,
ameliorate the situation, and, B, begin to set the economy on a
different, post-oil course.
Nigeria’s economic crisis highlights the
limitations of the current administration’s anti-corruption policy.
There’s nothing new in Mr. Buhari’s war against corruption. He’s using
the same tools as former Presidents Obasanjo, Yar’Adua and Jonathan. A
lot of cases filed by the EFCC during Obasanjo’s administration are
still in process, stalled in a judicial system that is programmed to
shield privileged thieves. Already, the Supreme Court has put the case
against Senate President Bukola Saraki in a state of abeyance. There’s
no sign that the case against former National Security Adviser, Sambo
Dasuki, will not drag on for years. One expects that the government will
indict many more ex-officials. As I suggested last week, there won’t be
enough investigators, prosecutors, and judges to handle the size of the
potential new indictments.
Meanwhile, as the economy becomes more
beleaguered, Nigerians are bound to lose interest in the soap opera of
EFCC prosecutions.
Mr. Buhari’s challenge is to outline his
policies for getting the economy out of its current (and bound to
worsen) quagmire, fixing the broken educational system, establishing a
semblance of a healthcare system, improving infrastructure, and
reforming law enforcement, the judiciary and other institutions. It’s
not a sexy task, and certainly won’t inspire the kind of frenzied
applause that comes from arresting a Dasuki or two. But that’s the
deeper challenge that would establish whether Mr. Buhari understands
what it means to epitomize Change.
Please follow me on twitter @ okeyndibe
SUN
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